Okay, if you've read some of the other stuff I've put up on this website, you now know that I think Everquest (EQ) is at least the precursor to true Virtual Reality (VR) - and perhaps it qualifies in some ways as already being VR. Nevertheless, it seems very likely that things will progress a lot further in the decades to come. So what do I think VR in the futere is likely to look like?
Well, the interface is likely to get more sophisticated, certainly. Just for the fun of it, I'll go out on a limb and describe to you what I think the game machine of the future will look like. [Note: Feel free to make a copy of this prediction and save it off so you can laugh at me for how wrong I turned out to be.]
I think the central innovation in game technology in the next couple of decades will be the widespread use of 3-D goggles. Perhaps I'm not really going out on a limb here, since this technology has been around for some time and is constantly improving. For those who have never experienced it, I'm talking about goggles (usually mounted on a helmet) which feed a slightly different view to either eye to produce a 3-D effect. The helmet usually has some kind of sensor to detect the positioning of the the head so the computer can recalculated a different viewpoint as you turn your head or look up and down. The 3-D effect combined with the viewpoint changes combine to create a very immersive environment. Put one of these babies on, and you really feel like you are there!
The basic technology has been around quite a while but has never really hit the home market in a big way. However, home computing power has increased over time (and so has the age and income of the average computer gamer), so I believe 3-D goggles are ready for prime time.
Of course, there will be more technical challenges to overcome than just perfecting the goggles themselves. The problem with 3-D goggles is that they make it almost impossible to use a keyboard. After all, touch typing is one thing, typing when you can't even see your hands in front of your face is quite another. That means some alternative method is needed to control the game. For simple inputs a joystick will do, or better yet a specially wired glove (point means forward, fist means stop,etc). But for more sophisticated inputs (like changing weapons or opening up a map window), the best interface will most likely be voice commands. Fortunately, the technology for a computer to understand the human voice is just starting to mature - so this should be doable.
At this point, the biggest barrier to a better interface is not the technology, but the inertia of the market. Here we hit the same conundrum which at one time faced DVDs, CDs, and every new technology to ever come along. You can't sell the equipment without something to play on it, and no one wants to make something to play on equipment which hasn't been sold yet. This is especially true when we are talking about computer games, which are expensive enough as is without depending on cranky new technology. However, I think inevitably one of the big players in the market will attempt to put both pieces together (perhaps a Sony or a Microsoft - a company with deep pockets which can invest in creating a new market so they can be at the top of it).
While it is fun to speculate on what the next generation VR will be like from a sensory standpoint, it is still my contention that what puts the "reality" into VR is not the realism of the sensory inputs, but the way it becomes a substitute for reality itself - in particular the way that VR interactions mirror and substitute for real life interactions.
Already, people interact socially, and even build friendships online. And the game designers have driven this interaction by building the need for player cooperation directly into the game. However, other than setting up the driving conditions for player interaction the designers of games like Everquest have done little, if anything, to facilitate the building of player connections themselves.
Consider: in EQ a player enters the game for the first time and they see other characters running around. After some fiddling around and reading of the manual, the new player learns how to shout for a group or ask another player for help. But how do you find someone in the game that you will actually want to hang out with? How do you find a friend? Unless you happen to already know people in real life who play the game, it can take a long time to find someone you enjoy playing with who has a similar schedule, etc.
I'm reminded of something I saw on a T-shirt once: "You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince." Well, one person's frog is another person's prince, and in any case we certainly aren't talking about a commitment as deep as marriage with an option for happily ever after. Still, it doesn't seem too far fetched to think that technology could help out with this problem at least a little bit. After all, computer dating has been around for quite a while, and my TiVO can record programs that I like based on what I've told it I've liked in the past.
I think a lot of thought, and some moderately sophisticated technology, is going to go into solving this problem in the future. The drive for friendship is a powerful one, and not easily fulfilled in today's society. And wherever there is an unmet need, you can bet there is a corporation anxious to fill it... for a small fee of course.
In the future, I expect games will build profiles of the people who play them. In the beginning, they will ask you your age and your interests, and they will track the times that you play and the ways that you play. It may even look at the way you "speak" - analyzing your vocabulary level, your tendancies to swear (or not), etc. Then the software will dynamically segregate people into virtual regions with like minded (or even complementary) players - increasing the probability that the person you are playing with will be someone you actually want to play with. For instance, if you are an older, casual player who prefers to cooperate rather than compete, over time you will find yourself surrounded by people of a like disposition. The computer may even help you to find people whose schedules align well with yours to form a regularly scheduled group.
This may sound rather scary to some people (too much like "Big Brother"), and many people will choose not to play in such an environment and instead play with real life friends or find people on line "pot luck." However, many others with poorer social skills will find this kind of help to be a godsend. Of course, once a game knows this much about you the potential for abuse could be quite large. At a minimum, it seems likely that this will tend to make VR games even more compelling and addictive, and at its worst the gathering of this kind of personality information could be used to direct advertising and influence people in real life.
Interesting, huh?
This leads naturally enough to my next topic: The Impact of Virtual Reality